What’s happening in the market?

BTC

BTC spent the weekend climbing towards $66,000 after finding bids at our previously identified support level of $60,700. Currently trading around $66,000, the rally looks to have found some resistance in the $66,500 to $67,000 zone.

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: $63,000, $61,500
Resistance: $67,000, $71,200

ETH

Similarly, ETH found bids at $2,850, spending the weekend on a slow grind up. Currently trading at $3,200, ETH seems to have recovered 13% from its lows.

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: $3,000, $2,900
Resistance: $3,300, $$3,500

SOL

SOL triple bottomed on the LTFs, finding bids at $126 and rallying 23% from its lows. Currently trading at $154, a close above $155.50 (previous swing high) could be a good sign for the bulls.

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: $147, $140
Resistance: $155, $175

Options Market Update

BTC

Short term skews peaked at 15.89 just before BTC found bids at the local bottom of $60,000 and have now dropped to more neutral levels.

ETH

In last week’s update, we highlighted ETH’s short team skew peaking at 21.51, suggesting that the market may have found its local bottom. Since then, ETH has rallied 13% off its lows and skew has returned to normalized levels.

In other news…

1. Paradigm reported key option flows for BTC and ETH today.

Here are the top 3 structures for BTC:

• 247x 26-APR-24 62/66/67/72000 Iron Condor (sold)

• 225x 3-MAY-24 70000 Call (bought)

• 200× 27-DEC-24 85000 Call (bought)

Here are the top 3 structures for ETH:

• 13500x 26-APR-24 3400 Call (bought)

• 1500x +1.00-CALL-26 APR 24 3200 / +1.00-CALL-3 MAY 24 3200 (sold)

• 1500× 31-MAY-24 3200 Straddle (sold)

  2. Bitcoin just completed its fourth-ever ‘halving,’ here’s what investors need to watch now

  3. FTX to auction next lot of locked Solana tokens

  4. Crypto Exchange Woo X Claims a First With Tokenized Treasury Bills for Retail Investors

  5. Thailand will block unlicensed crypto exchanges ‘to solve online crimes’

Trade Idea of the Week: 26APR-165/250 Long Call Spread

Our spotlight this week falls on the 26APR-165/250 Call Spread option, currently trading at an IV of 164%, down from a high 176%.

After bottoming out at $127, SOL has found some resistance between $153-$155. If a next leg up were to happen, this option would put us in a prime position to profit from—without the risk of liquidation.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Best Case: SOL rallies above $250, making our call spread well in the money. Traders stand to make $85 per contract, excluding the net premium paid.

2. Moderate Case: If SOL fluctuates between $165 and $250, profit increases linearly with SOL’s price within this range but is limited by the cost of entering the spread (~$4.80).

3. Worst Case: If SOL drops below $165, both call options expire worthless. In this scenario, the loss is limited to the net premium paid for the spread, which is ~$4.80 per contract at time of writing.

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